City of Basketball Love

Matt Trabold (@TrabsMatt)
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In his weekly Trabs Files, CoBL national analyst Matt Trabold takes a look around the national college landscape, both in the week that was and the week to come:

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Hello Again, Smaller Conference Tournament Underdogs

Last week’s Trabs Files featured a mention of the men’s college basketball late season phenomenon of squads that dominated their respective conferences in the regular season being on the wrong end of massive upsets in smaller conference tournaments when they were expected by most to be dancing. Tuesday kicked off conference tournament time this season and an incident of this nature occurred right off the bat as a team tied for the worst record in Atlantic Sun play this year in Stetson upset the conference’s tournament two-seed in New Jersey Institute of Technology. That was only the beginning.

On Wednesday night, the America East’s NCAA Tournament representative in each of the past three seasons coming into this one in Albany was upset by Pancake Thomas and the conference’s tournament seven-seed in Hartford. The Great Danes had run over the Hawks by sixteen points in their final regular season game just five days prior. The side Albany had beat in the last two America East Tournament title games in Stony Brook now has an even better shot at finally seeing its name in the NCAA Tournament field during the career of one of the country’s tip-top frontcourt players in senior Jameel Warney.

Just two days after New Jersey Institute of Technology was upset in the 2016 Atlantic Sun Tournament, the event churned out another total jaw-dropper. Not only did the pretty clear favorite to grab the Atlantic Sun’s automatic bid to the field of 68 in North Florida get upset by Florida Gulf Coast, the Ospreys were throttled by 33 points against the Eagles. In the other semifinal of this bracket, Stetson kept up its winning ways with a 21-point victory versus Lipscomb. What makes Sunday’s title game in this tournament even more interesting is that the Hatters are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament and, according to Atlantic Sun rules, North Florida would still dance if Stetson takes down Florida Gulf Coast due to it being the regular season champion. The Hatters beat the Eagles by a score of 80-73 in the final regular season contest of the two ballclubs.

Right around the same time Thursday night as that was happening to the Ospreys, the top-two seeds in the Patriot League Tournament – Bucknell and Lehigh riding a nine-game winning streak coming in – were taken to the brink. The second-seeded Mountain Hawks added a tenth game to their winning streak by narrowly edging out Navy by two points. The top-seeded Bison weren’t as lucky. Bucknell had a six-point lead with three minutes to go in overtime, but Holy Cross was still able to force a second extra period. Then, recent Northwestern head coach Bill Carmody and the Crusaders ended up pulling it out over their favored opponent by five points.

Watch Your Back, Goliath (Upset Predictions)
No. 24 Southern Methodist at Cincinnati--Sun., Mar. 6, 12:00 PM ET
Even though the Bearcats have victories this season over fellow bubble teams Virginia Commonwealth, George Washington, Tulsa and Connecticut on two occasions, they may just need a win in this one to be included in the 2016 NCAA Tournament field. The wrinkle of this match-up to monitor the most as Sunday afternoon draws closer is whether or not Farad Cobb and Shaquille Thomas return for this one from a knee injury and a groin injury, respectively. Without that duo, Cincinnati fell by thirteen points against Houston on Thursday night. With Ge’Lawn Guyn now at East Tennessee State, Mick Cronin’s junior starting point guard Troy Caupain has answered the calling and then some with his expanded role this season – when it comes to both production and leadership with Thomas the only longer-tenured Bearcat in the rotation – becoming the top option for the group.

Cincinnati has garnered much of its success over the past season and change through junior college transfers, but the squad’s x-factor right now is freshman swingman Jacob Evans. Evans failed to reach double figures in scoring in each of the first nine American Athletic Conference contests of his young men’s basketball career, but averaged just about thirteen points an outing over the last five games for the Bearcats. On the other hand in this one, the question mark for the Mustangs is whether they treat this as their Super Bowl of sorts because this is undoubtedly their last game of the season or their spirit and drive pales in comparison to a side that is eligible for the postseason and in pretty dire need of victory this time around. Much is said about Louisville’s graduate transfers Damion Lee and Trey Lewis unfortunately being on a ballclub that is ineligible for postseason play, but Southern Methodist’s former Texas Tech Red Raider Jordan Tolbert is also mired in not being able to compete for a national title with a new program during his final men’s college basketball campaign. Tolbert has dropped at least nine points in each of his last eight ballgames.

Wisconsin at No. 15 Purdue--Sun., Mar. 6, 7:30 PM ET
The Badgers are undeniably one of the top men’s college basketball stories this year. A handful of games into its Big Ten slate, it looked like inclusion in the 2016 NCAA Tournament field was essentially an impossibility for Wisconsin after Bo Ryan’s then-interim head coaching heir in Greg Gard had a 1-4 start to his tenure to give the squad a 9-9 record at that point with losses to Western Illinois, Milwaukee and Northwestern. Gard and his staff turned this season around in a monumental way though with victories in eleven of the next twelve contests for the Badgers, including a foursome of ranked wins. On Wednesday night, redshirt freshman Ethan Happ recorded his fifth double-double in Big Ten competition with twelve points, ten rebounds and two blocks against Minnesota.

Happ and Vitto Brown may have been the secret weapons during this streak of success in conference play, but Bronson Koenig has displayed the last two times out why he – along with Nigel Hayes – was one of the focal points for this squad coming into the season. Versus the Golden Gophers and another Big Ten bubble team in Michigan, Koenig combined for 33 points, eight assists and just a single turnover. Like the Badgers beating the eighth-ranked team at the time in Iowa last week, the Boilermakers also boast a recent big-time win after downing the tenth-ranked team at the time in Maryland this past weekend. Sophomore guard Dakota Mathias is playing his best basketball of the season at the moment. Mathias dropped a combined 28 points, ten assists and just two turnovers in the wins over the Terrapins and Nebraska in Purdue’s last two outings. He only had two double-digit scoring performances over the first 28 games of the year.

Stat Tease
Maryland at Indiana: Scoring Margin vs. Scoring Offense
Despite needing to sit down James Blackmon Jr. for the remainder of the season seventeen games ago due to a knee injury, the Hoosiers still find themselves thirteenth nationally in scoring offense. On top of that Blackmon Jr. blow, Indiana has recently been dealing with more minor injuries to Robert Johnson and Juwan Morgan. Nick Zeisloft has been picking up the scoring slack with a combined 25 points on 7-of-11 shooting from deep over his last pair of performances against Illinois and sixteenth-ranked Iowa. Not only does Maryland currently possess five players averaging double-digit scoring – only Southern California has more nationally with six – but the Terrapins are also top-thirty in the country in scoring margin. Sophomore guard Jared Nickens isn’t one of those five men, but he did combine for 25 points over the last two times out for Maryland versus Purdue and the Illini.

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Players to Watch in Conference Tournaments

Vashil Fernandez--Sr., Valparaiso
With a Wright State side that downed the Crusaders twice in the regular season on the other half of the bracket, there’s a major chance that the Horizon League Tournament ends up with the Valparaiso-Oakland title game match-up many are waiting to see. Fernandez has recorded at least five blocked shots in three of his last five outings. One of the two performances during that span that didn’t contain that was thirteen points, six rebounds and three blocks against the Golden Grizzlies.

Rokas Gustys--So., Hofstra
The Pride may have to get through William & Mary to get to the title game of the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament, but at least they would probably only have to play one out of the trio of UNC-Wilmington, Towson and Northeastern with Quincy Ford back when they got there. Gustys has fortified his prowess on the boards in conference play and consequently finds himself fourth in the country in rebounding at the moment. No player pulled down more rebounds in conference competition nationally than Gustys. He has snagged 21 rebounds in a game twice over his last handful of contests.

Retin Obasohan--Sr., Alabama
The Crimson Tide has seen its bubble position take a hit of late with losses to Mississippi State and Arkansas over their last four games. That hasn’t been due to Alabama’s top option in Obasohan failing to score at a high level, though. A handful of contests ago in a victory over Louisiana State, he recorded 35 points, no turnovers and 11-of-11 shooting from the charity stripe. Last time out versus the Razorbacks, Obasohan had 32 points.

Bryant McIntosh--So., Northwestern
There has been some chatter recently about Minnesota being a squad to watch when it comes to somebody making a shocking run in the Big Ten Tournament, but the best candidate for that may actually be the Wildcats. McIntosh hasn’t been scoring as much of late as he did in the non-conference slate, but he has made up for it in terms of getting his teammates involved. Over the two contests prior to Northwestern’s win against Penn State Thursday night, McIntosh combined for twenty assists and just a single turnover versus Michigan and Rutgers.