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2018 American Athletic Conference tournament preview (March 8-11)

03/07/2018, 8:15am EST
By Owen McCue

Owen McCue (@Owen_McCue)
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The American Athletic Conference has been a two-way race throughout the season between Cincinnati and Wichita State, playing in its first year in the league.

Both teams were picked to finish first and second, respectively, in the coaches preseason poll and battled for a share of the conference crown until the Bearcats pulled out a one-point win on the last day of the regular season. Houston joins them as another Top 25 team in the league upon season’s end.

Tulsa rode a hot end of the year to a somewhat surprising fourth place finish. Despite the departure of two key players, Memphis was able to finish fifth after a ninth place prediction.

Central Florida and Southern Methodist were supposed to be two of the top teams in the league, but injuries to UCF’s Tacko Fall and SMU’s Shake Milton, the AAC Preseason Player of the Year, hurt both squads. The Mustangs, one of the top programs in the league over the last several seasons and the 2017 conference tournament champs, fell all the way down to ninth this year.

Temple and UConn, two teams which are supposed to be near the top of the conference standings on an annual basis both underperformed despite highly talented rosters. Other than that, things were status quo with Tulane, East Carolina and South Florida finishing in the bottom of the league standings.

It’s hard to see anyone besides Cincinnati, Wichita State or Houston walking out with the conference tournament title, but this conference tourney has had some surprises in the past with No. 5 seed UConn defeating No. 6 seed Memphis in the title game just two years ago.

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Here’s a look at this year’s American Athletic Conference tournament, which starts in Orlando on Thursday:

Favorites

Cincinnati: The Bearcats won their first 12 conference games before a two-game skid to Wichita State and Houston in mid-February. However, Mick Cronin’s squad responded to win its next four, which included clinching the regular season title with a win against the Shockers. The title is Cincinnati’s first outright conference championship since winning Conference USA in 2002. While the Bearcats possess their typical stingy defense--they rank No. 2 nationally in scoring defense--this Cincinnati team also has plenty of threats to score. Jacob Evans (13.5 ppg), Gary Clark (12.7 ppg), Kyle Washington (11.2 ppg) and Jarron Cumberland (11.1 ppg) are all in double figures.

Wichita State: In its first year in the league, the Shockers finished tied with Houston for second in the conference standings--two games behind Cincinnati--but they’re clearly the other top dog in this tournament. Both of the games against the Bearcats have been great battles--a 76-72 win on Feb. 18 and a 62-61 loss on March 4. Like the Bearcats, Wichita State has four double figure scorers in Landry Shamet (14.6), Shaquille Morris (14.2), Darral Willis Jr. (10.6) and Conner Frankamp(10.2). Junior forward Markis McDuffie may be returning to full form after missing the first 11 games of the season with a stress fracture in his left foot. He scored 26 points against SMU on Feb. 24.

Houston: The Cougars are really the only other team in this tournament that wouldn’t be an absolute surprise to take home the conference crown. Houston split both conference meetings with Wichita State and Cincinnati. After putting together two 20-win seasons during the past two years, coach Kelvin Sampson has this squad poised for its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2010. Senior guard Rob Gray was third in the league in scoring at 18.1 ppg. Junior college transfer Corey Davis Jr. (13.4 ppg) has given the Cougars a big boost in his first year with the program, while redshirt-senior forward Devin Davis (10.7 ppg) has taken a step forward after battling injuries last season.

Contenders

Tulsa: The Golden Hurricane are one of the hottest teams in the conference. After a 4-5 start to conference play, which included a four-game losing streak in January, Tulsa won eight of its last nine to end the regular season. They capped their season with an impressive 18-point win against Temple, which started with a 24-0 run. Coach Frank Haith’s group did benefit from some scheduling as they only matched up with Cincinnati and Houston once each, losing both in addition to both meetings with Wichita State. Redshirt-senior forward Junior Etou (15.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg) will have to shoulder this team if he wants to make earn his first NCAA Tournament bid.

Memphis: Even after the transfer of Dedric and K.J. Lawson, the Tigers have quietly put together a solid season in a year where there weren’t many expectations. Memphis already matched its best conference finish since 2014-15 and with a win in the conference tournament will have its first 20-win campaign since the 2013-14 season. After finishing fourth on the Tigers in scoring last season, junior guard Jeremiah Martin has turned into a star, leading the league in scoring this year at 18.9 ppg. Kyvon Davenport (12.8 ppg) has been another consistent scoring presence, reaching double figures in all but six of the team’s games.

Central Florida: The Knights entered the season as a potential NCAA Tournament team and a sleeper to win the conference. Then came the injuries. Transfer Aubrey Dawkins went down before the season. Junior guard B.J. Taylor missed 16 games. Just as Taylor came back, 7-foot-6 junior Tacko Fall suffered a season-ending injury. The Knights lost three straight before a win against Tulane in their regular season finale. Though UCF finished just .500 in conference play, Taylor (15.5 ppg) and redshirt-senior wing A.J. Davis (12.4 ppg), could spark them to a deep conference tourney run.

Dark Horses

Temple: The Owls looked dead in the water after losing five straight to start conference play. Then came a five-game winning streak in late January into early February that included a win against Wichita State. The Owls were up 14 points on the Shockers at halftime in their second meeting, before faltering down the stretch. The wheels came off a bit for Temple after that one, losing four of five down the stretch. There’s plenty of talent on this team, including sophomore guard Quinton Rose (14.9 ppg). However, it’s yet to be determined which team will show up in Orlando, the one that beat Auburn, Clemson and Wichita State or the one which fell behind 24-0 against Tulsa on Sunday.

UConn: The Huskies haven't really done anything to show they are capable of winning this tournament. They went 0-9 against the top five teams in the league during the regular season. However, there seems to be something magical about UConn during this time this year. Though they were never seeded higher than No. 4 the Huskies advanced to the first three conference title games in 2014, 2015 and 2016. They advanced to the semifinals as the No. 6 seed a year ago. UConn comes into this tournament as the No. 8 seed, its worst finish since the league's formation, but maybe Jalen Adams (18.6 ppg) and Christian Vital (15.9 ppg) can stir up some more magic.

Players to Watch

Rob Gray (Sr./Houston): Gray finished third in the league in scoring at 18.1 ppg to go along with 4.7 apg. He became The American’s all-time leading scorer this season. The 6-foot-1 senior guard can fill it up on any given night. He has four 30-point games this season, most recently in the Cougars’ season finale against UConn on Sunday.

Gary Clark (Sr./Cincinnati): Clark seems like he’s been at Cincinnati forever. He has started 132 games during his career. The 6-foot-8 forward was a unanimous first team all-conference selection, averaging 12.8 ppg and 8.7 rpg. He led the league with nine double-doubles this season.

Landry Shamet (r-So./Wichita State): Shamet is quite possibly the best NBA draft prospect in the league. Recent mock drafts have him in the late first to early second round range. The 6-foot-4 guard finished in the Top 10 in the league in scoring (14.6 ppg) and also led The American in assists (5.2 apg).

Jalen Adams (Jr./UConn): Adams, a former McDonald’s All-American, earned first team all-conference honors last season. This year he finished second in scoring (18.5 ppg) and third in assists (4.7 apg) to earn second team all-conference distinction. Though the Huskies have been a bit hard on eyes this season, the 6-foot-3 guard is still worth the watch.

Junior Etou (r-Sr./Tulsa): After sitting out the 2015-16 season following his transfer from Rutgers, Etou has put together two solid campaigns for the Golden Hurricane. This season, the 6-foot-8 forward led Tulsa in scoring (15.1 ppg) and rebounding (7.7 rpg). He finished just behind Clark with eight double-doubles.

Melvin Frazier (Jr./Tulane): Frazier did a bit of everything for the Green Wave. The 6-foot-6 guard averaged 15.9 points per game, while shooting 56 percent from the floor. He also was among the league leaders in rebounding (5.6 rpg), steals (2.2 spg) and blocked shots (0.8 bpg).


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