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2015 Atlantic 10 Tournament Primer

03/10/2015, 1:30pm EDT

By Jeff Neiburg

Jeff Neiburg (@Jeff_Neiburg)
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In what is usually a wide-open conference tournament, the “sixth power conference” is likely to not disappoint yet again when its 14 teams get to Brooklyn’s Barclays Center. The bottom four teams will open up play Wednesday, and the tournament will finish up just prior to Selection Sunday’s intro music.

Speaking of Selection Sunday, the A-10 appears to be a 3-bid league this year, with Davidson, Dayton and Virginia Commonwealth nearly locks to make the field of 68. But there are a few teams who can secure a bid by playing well and, perhaps, even winning the whole thing come Sunday (hint: Rhode Island, Richmond, George Washington).

Neither CoBL team (Saint Joseph’s or La Salle) appears to be capable of cutting down the nets on Sunday, but crazier things have happened.

Here’s a look at the favorites, contenders and a dark horse to look for at the Barclays Center:

2014-15 Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament
Wednesday
No. 12 Fordham vs. No. 13 George Mason, 6:30 p.m.
No. 11 Duquesne vs. No. 14 Saint Louis, 9 p.m.
Thursday
No. 8 Massachusetts vs. No. 9 La Salle, noon
No. 5 VCU vs. Fordham/George Mason winner, 2:30 p.m.
No. 7 St. Bonaventure vs. No. 10 Saint Joseph’s, 6:30 p.m.
No. 6 George Washington vs. Duquesne/Saint Louis winner, 9 p.m.
Friday
No. 1 Davidson vs. Massachusetts/La Salle winner, noon
No. 4 Richmond vs. VCU/Fordham/George Mason, 2:30 p.m.
No. 2 Dayton vs. St. Bonaventure/St. Joe’s winner, 6:30 p.m.
No. 3 Rhode Island vs. George Washington/Duquesne/Saint Louis, 9 p.m.
Saturday
Semifinals: 1:30 p.m. and 4 p.m.
Sunday
Final: 1 p.m.

The Favorites
No. 1 Davidson Wildcats (23-6, 14-4)
RPI/KenPom: 32/25
Key players: G Tyler Kalinoski (Sr., 16.9pg, 5.7rpg, 4.2apg), G Jack Gibbs (16.0ppg, 3.8rpg, 4.8apg), G Brian Sullivan (Jr., 13.1ppg, 3.1rpg, 3.9apg)
Why they could win it: It’s certainly a little cliché to pick the regular season champion as the top favorite to win the whole thing, but how can you pick against Davidson, which has won nine consecutive games heading into Brooklyn? The Wildcats feature the conference’s Player of the Year (Kalinoski) and Coach of the Year (Bob McKillop). In its first year in the A-10, Davidson has been remarkable, and the Wildcats especially have come on as of late. It was tough to pick just three key players, as Davidson boasts a roster with five players averaging more than 9.6ppg. There’s not a ton of size to speak of, but this time of year it usually comes down to guard play anyway. The road for the Wildcats is only beginning in Brooklyn, though their quarterfinal opponent will be a dangerous one in La Salle or UMass. They will certainly be on upset alert in the quarters.

No. 2 Dayton Flyers (23-7, 13-5)
RPI/KenPom: 33/41
Key players: G Jordan Sibert (Sr., 16.6ppg, 3.5rpg, 1.9apg), F Dyshawn Pierre (Jr., 13.0ppg, 8.1rpg, 3.0apg), F Kendall Pollard (So., 12.5ppg, 5.4rpg)
Why they could win it: This team is only one year removed from playing against Florida in the Elite 8, so don’t think that Archie Miller doesn’t have this group prepared to do something along those lines again. Despite falling to the likes of No. 9 La Salle and No. 11 Duquesne over the last two weeks, Dayton enters play in Brooklyn winners in 6-of-8. The Flyers have a talented mix of guard and forward play and feature the No. 32 adjusted defensive rating according to KenPom. They should easily get into the semifinals and from there, anything is possible.

The Underdogs
No. 5 Virginia Commonwealth Rams (22-9, 12-6)
RPI/KenPom: 20/38
Key players: F Treveon Graham (Sr., 16.2ppg, 6.6rpg), G Melvin Johnson (Jr., 12.1ppg), FMo Alie-Cox (So., 7.0ppg, 5.5rpg)
Why they could win it: Life changed for the Rams once star senior playmaker Briante Weberwent down with a season-ending knee injury. They also dealt with leading scorer Treveon Graham missing time. Without Weber, who went down 12 steals shy of breaking the all-time NCAA record, the Rams aren’t the same Shaka Smart, HAVOC-infused power. They went 5-5 down the stretch – including an 82-55 drubbing to Davidson – after Weber went down against Richmond. But this isn’t a team that lacks talent. In a wide-open field, the talent of Graham and Johnson alone is certainly enough to be cutting the nets down. And even though Alie-Cox isn’t the same player as Weber, he’s been very efficient in his role. The Rams should be fine getting by their first opponent, but then would match up with a red-hot Richmond group.

No. 3 Rhode Island (21-8, 13-5)
RPI/KenPom: 72/60
Key players: G E.C. Matthews (So., 16.6ppg, 4.5rpg, 2.0apg), F Hassan Martin (So., 11.9ppg, 7.7rpg), G Jared Terrell (Fr., 9.2ppg)
Why they could win it: No team, arguably, has more at stake in the A-10 tourney than Rhode Island. Firmly on the bubble, the Rams need to do some work in Brooklyn to get the A-10 its fourth bid. They’ll be aided by their seeding in automatically reaching the quarterfinals, where a winnable game against three possible opponents awaits. Then they’ll likely get a shot at Dayton, a team they lost to 75-59 just a week ago. With Matthews leading the way, anything is possible for URI, which has the 12th best adjusted defensive rating buy KenPom.

The Dark Horse
No. 4 Richmond (19-12, 12-6)
RPI/KenPom: 59/50
Key players: G Kendall Anthony (Sr, 16.3ppg, 2.3apg), F Terry Allen (Jr., 12.5ppg, 6.4rpg) F T.J. Cline (So., 11.3ppg, 3.8rpg)
Why they could win it: Well, the Spiders are coming to Brooklyn riding a six-game winning streak and that makes them as dangerous as anyone. Pint-sized Anthony (5-foot-8) leads the way for Richmond, who can really slow the game down if it builds a lead. If not for a 71-67 overtime loss to George Mason, Richmond would be riding an eight game winning streak. ShawnDre’ Jones provides another less-than-6-foot guard alongside Anthony in the backcourt and Allen and Cline are solid up front. The Spiders scored the No. 4 seed and a bye to the quarterfinals, where they’ll likely meet VCU in a showdown which the Spiders took 67-63 in double overtime on February 25.

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Prediction
First Round
No. 13 George Mason over No. 12 Fordham
No. 11 Duquesne over No. 14 Saint Louis
Second Round
No. 9 La Salle over No. 8 Massachusetts
No. 5 VCU over No. 13 George Mason
No. 10 Saint Joseph’s over No. 7 St. Bonaventure
No. 6 George Washington over 11 Duquesne
Quarterfinals
No. 1 Davidson over No. 9 La Salle
No. 4 Richmond over No. 5 VCU
No. 2 Dayton over No. 10 St. Joseph’s
No. 3 Rhode Island over No. 6 George Washington
Semifinals
No. 1 Davidson over No. 4 Richmond
No. 3. Rhode Island over No. 2 Dayton
Finals
Davidson 70, Rhode Island 63