City of Basketball Love

By Josh Verlin (@jmverlin)
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With the schedule about to turn to 2025, it’s time for Division I hoops conference play to start en masse around the country. A few leagues have already played their first league game or two, but for the vast majority of teams (including five of the six Big 5 schools), it’s been nothing but non-league opponents over the first couple months of the year. 

It’s been a mixed bag of results all across the men’s side of the Big 5 early on — so, rather than attempt to sort them in a Power Rankings, I figured it’s better to just take a look at what’s gone right, what’s gone wrong, and how the rest of the season looks for each of the Big 5 men’s programs.

We’ll also be referencing Ken Pomeroy’s famous site quite a bit in this roundup — keep in mind all of KenPom’s numbers only apply to games against Division I competition, and thus might not exactly match the official Division I rankings.

(All stats as of Monday afternoon)

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Drexel Dragons
Record: 8-5 (0-0 CAA)
Last 5 Games: vs. Bryant (L, 78-73), vs. Penn (W, 60-47), @ Albany (W, 77-70), @ Howard (W, 68-65), vs. Penn State (L, 75-64)
KenPom Ranking: Started 221st, currently 180th
 

Drexel junior Cole Hargrove. (Photo: Josh Verlin/CoBL)

The Good
The most positive development for Zach Spiker’s squad so far has been the development of juniors Kobe MaGee (14.8 ppg, 44.4 3PT%) and Cole Hargrove (10.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg), both of whom have risen to the challenge in their first seasons as starters. And junior point guard Jason ‘Deuce’ Drake has been steady on the ball, averaging 9.4 ppg and 2.8 apg while hitting 37.9% of his 3-pointers. KenPom has Drexel 22nd in the country in 3-point defense (28.3%) and 85th in 2-point offense (54.9%), with both Hargrove and junior forward Victor Panov hitting more than 70% of their shot attempts inside the arc. On top of that, they also recently got sophomore guard Kevin Vanderhorst healthy after a preseason injury, and he scored 14 points in 17 minutes against Penn State, his best outing (of three) yet.

The Bad
Statistically, the Dragons have two major weaknesses. They’re one of the worst teams in the country at getting to the foul line, their free-throw rate (FTA/FGA) of just 23.6 putting them 349th in the country; KenPom also has them at 350th nationally at forcing turnovers, doing so on just 13% of defensive possessions, and they are -3.7/game in turnover margin. That FT rate hurts them significantly: despite being around 100th in effective FG percentage, and in the top 100 in offensive rebounding, they’re only 198th in overall offensive efficiency. Individually, they could use better 3-point shooting from redshirt junior Shane Blakeney (12-of-43, 27.9%)

What’s Next
Ultimately, there’s more to like than not to like about what Spiker’s managed to do thus far despite massive program turnover in the offseason. They’ve beaten who they were supposed to beat — aside from perhaps losing to a solid Bryant squad (KenPom No. 194) at home — and while they didn’t manage to pull off any upsets, they were right there with both Drexel and Penn State. Keep in mind this is still a young group — KenPom has them at 341st nationally in the roster’s Division I experience, and they only have a single senior (Yame Butler) in the rotation. The Dragons were picked to finish 11th in the 14-team Coastal Athletic Association this preseason, but going into league play, they have the sixth-best KenPom rating and a projected 11-7 conference record — in a league where his projections have nobody with fewer than six losses. By all indications, Drexel should be in the mix in the CAA.

Grade: B

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La Salle Explorers
Record: 8-5 (0-0 A-10)
Last 5 Games: @ Northeastern (L, 82-68), vs. Saint Joseph’s (L, 82-68), @ North Carolina (L, 93-67), vs. Fairleigh Dickinson (W, 77-72), vs. Immaculata (W, 108-48)
KenPom Ranking: Started 169th, currently 157th

The Good
Perhaps the biggest surprise in the city has been the play of Corey McKeithan. The Rider transfer, who never averaged more than 8.0 ppg in three years with the Broncs, is leading the Explorers in scoring at 16.7 ppg, hitting 31-of-78 (39.7%) from the 3-point arc, with a positive assist-to-turnover ratio (1.8:1). Freshman guard Deuce Jones (10.3 ppg) has also had a strong start to his career, and they just got sophomore Eric Acker eligible, the LIU transfer averaging 11.0 ppg in his first three games. That gives them some quality depth in the top eight, something the Explorers haven’t had in a while. Oh, and yeah — the refurbished and renamed John Glaser Arena is a significant upgrade.

Corey McKeithan (above) is having a career year. (Photo: Josh Verlin/CoBL)

The Bad
There haven’t been any bad losses thus far, with a 13-point neutral-court loss to Illinois-Chicago (KenPom: 204) back in November the worst of the bunch. Statistically, the Explorers’ biggest problem is either shooting the ball — they’re 284th in 2-point shooting (47.4%) and 235th in 3-point shooting (31.9%), per KenPom — or defending around the rim, as they’re 290th in 2-point defense (55.3%). They’re also not great at forcing turnovers, doing so on only 16.4% of opponent’s possessions (249th). In terms of that shooting, it would help if junior guard Andres Marrero improved on his 13-of-47 (27.7%) from deep, but nobody other than McKeithan is above 33.3%. 

What’s Next
Similarly to Drexel, La Salle was an afterthought in the A-10 polls, getting picked dead last in the 15-team conference. And though their KenPom rating is 11th in a league with six teams inside the top 100, it’s clear by now the Explorers are not going to be basement-dwellers come March. If the addition of Acker to the rotation makes them even deeper, there’s a chance La Salle pushes for a spot in the top half of the league. 

Grade: B

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Penn Quakers
Record: 4-8 (0-0 Ivy League)
Last 5 Games: vs. Elon (L, 68-53), vs. Drexel (L, 60-47), @ VCU (L, 66-47), vs. Rider (W, 79-66), @ George Mason (L, 85-53)
KenPom Ranking: Started 186th, currently 311th

The Good
There’s not a ton to put here. Ethan Roberts, the former Patriot League Rookie of the Year, has been impressive after sitting out last season at Drake, averaging 16.6 ppg and 5.8 rpg on .433/.359/.800 splits. As a team, they’re 73rd in defensive two-point percentage (47.1%) according to KenPom, and they’re keeping teams off the foul line, with a FTA/FGA of .232 (14th nationally). 

Ethan Roberts (above) has been a rare bright spot for Penn early in the season. (Photo: Mark Jordan/CoBL)

The Bad
It’s been a rough first couple months of the year for the Quakers, no doubt about it. They’ve lost eight of their last 10, plummeting in the KenPom rankings, and are ranked in or near the bottom quartile in more than half of KenPom’s major statistical categories. Part of the reason teams aren’t getting to the line against them is that Penn’s opponents are shooting 40% from deep, which is the fifth-worst defensive mark in the country, per KenPom. Their best 3-point shooter (Sam Brown) is just 15-of-64 (23.4%) from deep, point guard Dylan Williams has more turnovers (20) than assists (12), they’re shooting 29.3% from deep, losing the rebound and turnover battles…you get the idea.

What’s Next
It’s hard to have a ton of optimism about the way the next two months are going to go for Penn based on what we’ve seen thus far. The offensive and shooting problems are apparent, but they’re not anywhere near as bad as the defensive numbers. They’re the worst team in the Ivy League according to the metrics, with a steep uphill battle to return to the top half of the league and the Ivy Madness berth that brings with it.  What was a promising start under Steve Donahue’s tenure, with an Ivy League title in 2018, has trended downhill since then, and this year thus far is looking like a significant low point. Doesn’t help in the slightest that archrival Princeton keeps getting better and better, with a couple NBA prospects on the roster.

Grade: D

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Saint Joseph’s Hawks
Record: 8-4 (0-0 Atlantic 10)
Last 5 Games: vs. Princeton (L, 77-69), vs. La Salle (W, 82-68), vs. Charleston (L, 78-75), vs. American (W, 84-57), vs. Virginia Tech (W, 82-62)
KenPom Ranking: Started 86th, currently 87th

Rasheer Fleming has blossomed into St. Joe's leading scorer and rebounder. (Photo: Josh Verlin/CoBL)

The Good
For the second year in a row, Billy Lange’s Hawks are Big 5 Classic champions, having defeated Villanova and Penn in pool play before storming past La Salle in the championship. Rasheer Fleming continues to get better and better, the junior forward leading the team in scoring (16.5 ppg) and rebounding (8.8 rpg) while shooting .562/.396/.674 with a team-high 19 blocks as well. Junior and Rutgers transfer Derek Simpson (10.3 ppg) is shooting a career-best 37.5% from 3-point range, and both DaSear Haskins (6.3 ppg) and Anthony Finkley (5.6 ppg) have been giving them quality minutes off the bench. As a team, the Hawks are 77th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 118th offensively, not truly elite in any one category besides blocking shots (14.6%, 23rd nationally) but in the top 100 in a number of others, like 3-point shooting (35.6%, 87th) and defensive 2-point shooting (46.8%, 63rd).

The Bad
It’s not that Erik Reynolds II has been bad; after all, his KenPom individual offensive rating is still 109.7, above average, thanks to an assist-to-turnover ratio above 2:1. But a senior who was a 38% 3-point shooter the last two years is just 28-of-97 (28.9%) from deep through 12 games, a significant downturn. And Brown, for all the improvements he’s made, needs to cut down on his turnovers, which are at 3.0/game; he and Simpson combine for about five per contest, too many from two point guards. The team’s biggest weakness as a whole comes on the offensive glass, where they’re 236th on KenPom, grabbing 28.5% of their misses; it’s not a two-way problem, however, as they’re 100th in defensive rebounding. (72.3%).

What’s Next
The Hawks roll into A-10 play with a bit of momentum after beating an ACC opponent by 20 this past weekend, but they face some stiff competition ahead. St. Joe’s is one of six A-10 teams in the KenPom top 100, a group paced by Dayton (32nd) and VCU (46th), though they won’t have to face either until a visit from VCU on Jan. 17, five games into the league slate. They’ll be favored in each of those first four, so there’s a chance for Lange’s group to get out to a hot start here and create some buzz in a league hoping to send three teams onto March Madness.

Grade: B-
 

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Temple Owls
Record: 7-5 (0-0 AAC)
Last 5 Games: vs. Villanova (L, 94-65), vs. Holy Family (W, 110-81), @ Hofstra (W, 60-42), vs. Davidson (W, 62-61), vs. Rhode Island (L, 85-79)
KenPom Ranking: Started 139th, currently 124th

Jamal Mashburn Jr. (above) has been averaging north of 20 ppg for the Owls. (Photo: Josh Verlin/CoBL)

The Good
A group patched together from a mix of returnees and transfers has generally played well out of the gate, with losses to three teams inside the top 90 on KenPom plus two road defeats at Boston College and La Salle. New Mexico transfer Jamal Mashburn Jr. has been as good as advertised, leading the team in scoring (20.3 ppg) while hitting 43.4% of his 3-pointers, and fifth-year big man Steve Settle III (12.0 ppg, 6.5 rpg) has improved on his numbers from a year ago. Adam Fisher has also gotten positive minutes from a pair of freshmen bigs, Babatunde Durodola (4.9 ppg) and Dillon Battie (4.1 ppg), and wing Aiden Tobiason (4.1 ppg) has started the last four contests. 

The Bad
It’s hard to figure out what exactly this team does well. They’re average on the offensive glass and poor on the defensive end, aren’t forcing turnovers, and are well outside the top 200 in shooting both inside and outside the arc; they’re 57th in opponents’ field-goal percentage (46.9%), showing that Fisher’s group is playing solid ‘D,’ but there’s a lot more that could be going well. It doesn’t help that outside of Mashburn and Settle, they’re not getting consistent offense from anybody else, and while the freshmen have good upside, they’re not giving them quite enough production right now to merit bigger minutes. 

What’s Next
The key word for Temple during the next two months is “stability.” The American Athletic Conference only has three teams inside the KenPom Top 100, with Temple currently holding the fifth-best ranking out of 13 in a hodgepodge league that’s had as many comings and goings as any other over the last decade. If any of Fisher’s numerous options step up alongside Mashburn and Settle, and if they can clean up on some of the rebounding issues, this team could actually compete for a top-three spot in the league.

Grade: B-

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Villanova Wildcats
Record: 8-5 (1-1 Big East)
Last 5 Games: vs. Cincinnati (W, 68-60), vs. Temple (W, 94-65), vs. Fairleigh Dickinson (W, 86-72), vs. Seton Hall (W, 79-67), @ Creighton (L, 86-79)
KenPom Ranking: Started 20th, currently 54th

Eric Dixon (above) has been the nation's leading scorer through the first two months of the season. (Photo: Mark Jordan/CoBL)

The Good
The Wildcats have returned to their status as an elite offensive team, anchored by an elite offensive player. Eric Dixon is off to one helluva start: a nation-best 25.8 points per game on .538/.500/.831 shooting, the 6-8 Abington product putting together everything he’s learned over his previous five years of college hoops. His dominance has allowed Wooga Poplar (13.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and Jhamir Brickus (11.5 ppg, 5.6 apg) to slide right in behind him as quality supporting pieces, ‘Nova 8th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (1.228 points per possession). 

The Bad
As good as ‘Nova’s been offensively, Kyle Neptune’s squad is playing the worst defense seen on the Main Line in…well, as long as KenPom’s numbers go back (1996-97). The worst number in that time was the 13-19 (5-13 Big East) squad in 2011-12, which gave up 1.007 points per possession (132nd nationally) — and that’s still leagues better than this year’s 1.081 (191st). They’re 313st in 3-point defense (36.9%) and 255th in forcing turnovers (16.2% of possessions), and have already given up 80 points three times. It’s by far the worst defense in the Big East, and could cause some serious problems if those shots stop falling.

What’s Next
Unclear. Barring a significant defensive improvement, it’s going to be tough for the Wildcats to string together a ton of wins in the Big East, not to mention deep into March. And after this season, most of the roster production will be graduating and moving on, leaving only a few mostly-unproven freshmen remaining. On the flip side, one very obvious area for improvement — perimeter defense — means that this is a fixable issue, and not a litany of problems. It just remains to be seen what Neptune can do about it.

Grade: C+

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