City of Basketball Love

Josh Verlin (@jmverlin)
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(Ed. Note: This article is part of our 2022-23 season coverage, which will run for the six weeks preceding the first official games of the year on Nov. 9. To access all of our high school and college preview content for this season click here)

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2022-23 Villanova Wildcats
Coach: Kyle Neptune, 1st season (0-0, .---)
Last Year: 30-8 overall (16-4 Big East), won Big East championship, lost in NCAA Tournament Final Four (Kansas, 81-65)

The end of the Jay Wright era came not with the program’s fourth national championship but certainly a season to remember. The Wildcats hit the 30-win mark for the sixth time in Wright’s tenure and made it to the national semifinals for the fourth time under the Hall of Famer, who surprised many when he announced his retirement shortly after the season ended. Now the program’s in the hands of Neptune, the former ‘Nova assistant (2013-21) who brought perennial punching bag Fordham from two wins to 16 in his only year in the Bronx. 

The message is that everything is exactly the same on the Main Line for one of the hottest programs in the country, but there’s no denying that with a few program stalwarts gone and some early-season injuries leaving them a little thin, the Wildcats are perhaps a bit more vulnerable than they have been during their recent decade of dominance.

Key Departures: G Collin Gillespie (15.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.2 apg), SF Jermaine Samuels (11.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg), F Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree

The pride of Archbishop Wood, Gillespie went from an unheralded local talent to a national star in the course of five years, winning the Bob Cousy Award as the nation’s top point guard as a senior along with Big East Player of the Year for the second year in a row. Following in the line of Ryan Arcidiacono and Jalen Brunson, Gillespie became the ‘Villanova guard’ everybody talked about for the last couple years, leading the team on the court and off, an elite outside shooter who got to the line, made his teammates better, limited his mistakes, etc. 

Samuels was the perfect Robin to Gillespie’s Batman, getting better and better all five years he was in a ‘Nova uniform, the 6-7 wing averaging 11.2 ppg and 6.1 rpg over the last three years. And Cosby-Roundtree, though limited to only six games as a senior due to chronic leg injuries, played in 111 games in a Villanova uniform, and there’s no doubt the Neumann-Goretti product was another locker room force for the ‘Cats. 

New Faces: SG Brendan Hausen (Fr. | Amarillo, Tex.), G Mark Armstrong (Fr. | Saint Peter’s Prep, N.J.), SF Cam Whitmore (Fr. | Archbishop Spalding, Md.)

Neptune’s first recruiting class — or Wright’s last, depending on how you look at it — is a talented three-man trio, consisting of one potential one-and-done blue chip in Whitmore and a pair of guards who should play right away but project as four-year players who should follow in the footsteps of the program kids who came before them. Whitmore’s definitely the jewel of the class, a powerful and skilled 6-7 wing who was in line to start on opening day before a preseason injury put that in jeopardy. No matter what, he should be an instant-impact player as soon as he returns from thumb surgery, even if his shooting takes a bit to come back. Armstrong’s a 6-2 combo guard who can score from all three levels, and Hauson is a 6-4 skilled shooting guard who can certainly help from the perimeter. Depending on injuries and how deep Neptune wants to go, all three can help Villanova this year, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Hausen and/or Armstrong ultimately play smaller roles this season, especially once a couple other injured players return.

Projected Starters: G Caleb Daniels (10.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg), G Justin Moore (14.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg), SG Jordan Longino (1.8 ppg) SF Cam Whitmore (DNP), F Eric Dixon (9.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg)

This group won’t be the one that starts for Neptune on opening night: Moore is out for at least the first month of the season as he recovers from an Achilles tear suffered in March, and Whitmore is questionable for the start of the season due to that thumb surgery. Daniels, a 6-3 guard who’s in his third season at Villanova after transferring from Tulane, and Dixon, a 6-8 forward who’s in his fourth year at Villanova though still has sophomore eligibility, are the two clear starters. Longino, a 6-5 guard out of Germantown Academy, has been getting rave reviews for his improvements since last year, and he seems likely to be in the lineup even when everybody’s healthy, but especially now. Who grabs the open spots in the meanwhile could go several different ways: senior wing Brandon Slater is the most obvious choice to replace Whitmore, and then Neptune could either go with experience (Chris Arcidiacono) or turn to one of the unproven young talents on the roster in the third guard spot. 

Key Reserves: F Brandon Slater (8.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg), G Chris Arcidiacono (1.6 ppg), PF Nnanna Njoku (0.7 ppg), F Trey Patterson, G Mark Armstrong, G Angelo Brizzi (DNP)

Once the injuries subside, the Villanova bench should be pretty strong: Slater and Arcidiacono give them a lot of experience, while the 6-9 Njoku is ready for bigger minutes at the ‘4’ and ‘5.’ After that, it’s Armstrong, Hausen and redshift freshman Angelo Brizzi — who impressed at Villanova’ intrasquad scrimmage last week — in the mix for guard minutes. The X-factor in the mix is Patterson, a 6-9 wing/forward and former four-star prospect who joined Villanova midway through the 2020-21 season. He only played in 16 games last year, averaging less than five minutes per contest, so he’s still unproven at the Division I level, but he could shuffle up the wing/forward rotation if he takes a step forward.

By the Numbers

(520): Jay Wright’s wins on the Villanova sidelines. It’s not just about numbers with Wright, though he put up impressive ones in his 21 years on the Wildcat sidelines. It’s about the aura he built within the program, top to bottom, a full buy-in. There was a brief blip a bit more than a decade ago, but since 2012-13, there’s been almost no cracks in the armor, no dissenters, no one out of line. Neptune got a decade to be steeped in that culture, and is certainly a good choice to keep it going, but any change is bound to bring questions. If Villanova is truly a blue blood program, we’ll know within a couple years — and maybe within a couple months.

(83.0%): Last season, Villanova was the No. 1 foul-shooting team in the country, making 83% of their freebies. Were they an NBA team, that would have been good enough for 8th in the league last year. There wasn’t really a weak spot in the lineup, Moore, the worst of the rotation, hit at a 75% clip. They lose Gillespie (91%) and Samuels (77%), but Dixon (82%), Daniels (85%) and Slater (88%) all return. They actually don’t go to the line as much as they should, with a free-throw rate of just 29.8% (a little less than one free-throw for every three shots), and it’ll be interesting to see if Neptune tries to get a strong foul-shooting team to the line with more regularity.

(18.4%): Villanova’s defensive turnover percentage in 2021-22. The Wildcats have been a strong defensive squad in recent memory, slotting in anywhere from 5th to 81th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive rankings over the last 10 years (and inside the 25 six of those times), but they’re not elite in every area. One area in which they haven’t been great of late has been forcing turnovers; last year they did it 18.4% of the time, which was 166th nationally; that was an improvement from a couple years before, when they were 292nd (16.9%). Neptune has a lineup full of guards and wings, and considering Villanova also isn’t a great defensive rebounding team, it wouldn’t hurt if they could force a few more turnovers. 

Keep an eye on…

Cam Whitmore: When Whitmore returns from thumb surgery — he’s seeing his doctor in early November for a follow-up — he’ll instantly become a player to watch not just on the Wildcats but in the Big East and nationally, as a strong season could mean he’s off to the NBA in the spring. He’s an elite physical prospect at the ‘3’ and ‘4’ with ball skills in the open court, high-flying athleticism, shot-making ability from three levels, and an IQ to match. The McDonald’s All-American could be the first true one-and-done player that’s come through Villanova in recent history if he lives up to his billing.

Who else emerges: If Neptune wants to have a squad worthy of contending for the Big East title, he’s going to need at least one player currently slotted into the bottom half of the rotation to really take a step forward, or one of the freshmen to come in strong. Especially before Moore returns, and if Whitmore needs a little time to get caught up, they’ll need Longino and some combination of Njoku/Patterson/Hauser/Brizzi/Armstrong to give them 20-25 quality minutes, assuming Brandon Slater will average double figures as well. Is Eric Dixon ready to score 14-15 ppg? A Nov. 11 trip to Temple will be a tough game if they don’t figure it out quickly.