City of Basketball Love

Josh Verlin (@jmverlin)
—

(Ed. Note: This article is part of our 2022-23 season coverage, which will run for the six weeks preceding the first official games of the year on Nov. 9. To access all of our high school and college preview content for this season click here)

~~~

2022-23 Villanova Wildcats
Coach: Denise Dillon, 3rd season (41-16, .719)
Last Year: 24-9 overall (15-4 Big East); lost in Big East championship (Connecticut, 70-40), lost in NCAA Round of 32 (Michigan, 64-49)

Last year was nothing but a success for the Wildcats, who won more games than they had in a season since a 28-win campaign in 2002-03, Dillion bringing the success she had at Drexel right into a perfect follow-up to Harry Perreta, who had the Wildcats in the mix for 20 wins seemingly every one of his 42 years there. The Wildcats accomplished more than just a Big East title game appearance and NCAA Tournament at-large berth; they also ended UConn's 145-game conference win streak in February, one of the best regular-season wins of any program in the country. With an All-American candidate leading the way in Maddy Siegrist, Villanova's going to have a target on its back, though it'll have to rely on some youth to step up to match or better last year's successes.

Key Departures: F Lior Garzon (13.1 ppg, 4.0 rpg), F Brianna Herlihy (10.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg), G Kenzie Gardler (0.6 ppg)

The trio of players gone from last year all left in different circumstances: Herlihy after exhausting her eligibility, Gardler after graduating with one year left that she chose to forgo, and Garzon via the transfer portal, where she’s now playing her junior year at Oklahoma State. Herlihy and Garzon, who started a combined 63 games and played a combined 58.8 minutes each contest, leave a big production hole in the lineup, as Garzon was the team’s top 3-point shooter with 66 makes, and Herlily was the team’s second-best rebounder and the team’s leader in assists (97) and steals (42). Gardler, who averaged about 10 minutes off the bench, wasn’t ever needed to be a scorer but gave them steadiness on the ball for upwards of 20-25 minutes in certain games throughout the season. 

New Faces: G Maddie Burke (Jr. | Penn State), G/F Maggie Grant (Fr. | Archbishop Carroll), F Annie Welde (Fr. | Cardinal O’Hara), G Abigail Jegede (Fr. | King’s Christian, Can.), F Megan Olbrys (Fr. | Norwood, Mass.)

To shore up the roster, Dillon and her staff added one impact transfer and four freshmen, including a couple local prospects, with good size across the board. Burke, a 6-0 wing out of Central Bucks West, was Big Ten Sixth Player of the Year as a freshman, averaging 8.9 ppg and 3.5 rpg, but struggled with her shot as a sophomore (15-of-77, 19.5%) and saw her numbers drop to 2.8 ppg and 1.7 rpg. If she can regain that freshman year form — and Villanova is expecting her to — she’ll be an instant plug in that gap mentioned above. The Wildcats have enough depth in their sophomore through senior classes that they shouldn’t need any of the freshmen to step right into major roles like last year, but Jegede (5-10), Welde (6-0), Grant (6-0) and Olbrys (6-1) bring more size to the roster; Olbrys was the 2022 Massachusetts Basketball Coaches Association Player of the Year.

Projected Starters: G Lucy Olsen (7.0 ppg, 2.7 apg), G Brooke Mullin (4.8 ppg, 2.9 rpg), G Bella Runyan (3.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg), G/F Maddie Burke (2.8 ppg @ Penn State), F Maddy Siegrist (25.3 ppg, 9.2 rpg)

Three starters return, but this team all starts with Maddy Siegrist. The 6-1 forward from Poughkeepsie (N.Y.) put her stamp down as one of the best players in all of college basketball, and one of the most under-the-radar stars considering her incredible production a year ago. Siegrist was the nation’s second-leading scorer, breaking the 30-point barrier nine times, with 12 double-doubles. She’s already third in program history in scoring (1,815) and sixth in rebounding (761). It would be almost impossible for her to have a better year this year than last, that’s how good she was.

The rest of the starting lineup is strong and experienced. Mullin is a third-year starter out of Neshaminy, and the former hustle/defensive specialist is going to be counted on to step up in the scoring column as well. That also applies for Olson, though the sophomore from Spring-Ford flashed some serious scoring abilities in her rookie season, going for 22 points in a December game against Lehigh and 20 at Penn. Runyan, a 5-11 guard, started eight games last year and averaged more than 22 points per contest.  If Burke gets back to form and Olsen takes a step forward, then getting a combined 13-15 points per game from Mullin and Runyan would be a huge bonus.

Key Reserves: G Kaitlyn Orihel (3.3 ppg), F/C Christina Dalce (1.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg), G Zanai Jones (1.3 ppg), G Anahi-Lee Cauley (0.9 ppg)

These four sophomores all got a solid amount of experience their freshmen year, Dalce getting 68 minutes over 13 games but the others playing in 22 or more contests; Orihel got the most minutes, seeing 14.6 per game over 32 games, as the Archbishop Wood product showed off a little bit of her scoring touch. Dalce, a 6-2 post, is the second-tallest player on the roster and gives them some needed length inside, while Jones gives them a true point guard to put alongside Olsen when the two share the court. Cauley, at 6-0, gives them another guard/wing with length, not something there’s any shortage of on the roster.

By the Numbers
(35.0): The percent of last year’s scoring that Garzon and Herlihy accounted for. The only two double-digit scorers outside of Siegrist, they take a solid chunk of production with them, combining for 751 out of Nova’s 2143 points last year; add in Siegrist, and it was three players accounting for nearly 70% of the team’s offensive production. After Herlihy, only Olsen averaged more than 5.0 ppg, and there were a few games where outside of the top three, Villanova really struggled to score. Dillon needs to develop more scoring depth and some additional punch near the top to support Siegrist.

(784): The number of 3-pointers Villanova took last year, 21st in the country according to HerHoopStats. Five different Wildcats took more than 2.5 3-pointers per game, with Garzon attempting 215 3-pointers (6.7/game). They were a slightly-above-average 3-point shooting team, making 30.9% (165th nationally), and lost one of their top two shooters in Herlihy (34.4%). It remains to be seen if the Wildcats continue to be one of the country’s more prolific 3-point shooting squads or if they try to generate offense in other ways — like getting to the free-throw line, where they were 34th in the country (76.1%) but only got 16.2% of their points from the line, which was 260th in the country, according to HerHoopStats.

(1.18): Villanova assist-to-turnover ratio, which was 25th in the country, according to HerHoopStats. And it’s possible it could be even better this year: the only member of the team with an A:TO ratio lower than one was Garzon (0.79), while Olsen (2.34), Runyan (1.88) and Mull (1.44) all return. Dillon should once again have a team that takes care of the ball; they were also 22nd in assisted shot rate (64.4%) and 44th in assists per game (15.2), and their 12.9 turnovers per game were 30th nationally. 

Keep an eye on…
Who’s the third scorer: It’s clear that Maddy Siegrist will get her 20+ on a regular basis, and it seems likely that Olsen steps up next to her as the Wildcats’ No. 2 option, her 1,699 career high school points evidence enough of her scoring ability. But Dillon would prefer to have a third regular double-digit scorer rather than do it by committee, and to prevent the offense from stagnating too much for the rare times when Siegrist isn’t on the floor. The most likely candidate is Burke, who showed she can do it early at Penn State, but don’t be surprised if Mullin or Orihel emerges as well. 

The sophomore class: Siegrist is the ‘now,’ but the future of the program lies heavily on the Wildcats’ sophomores, the five of whom should be on the court quite a lot over the next three years. Just how much progression that all of them make — especially the four who weren’t in the starting lineup last year — will go a long way towards determining how successful the ‘Nova women are this year, and then next year they’ll almost all need to enter starting/standout roles. Dillon seems high on them as a group, and look for Jones and Dalce especially to take big steps forward over last year.