City of Basketball Love

Matthew Ryan (@matthewmryan02)
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PITTSBURGH, PA — In recent years, the result of Villanova's second-round games has carried a great deal of weight. During six of the last seven tournaments — last year's Sweet 16 run being the one exception — Jay Wright's squad has either lost in the Round of 32 or won it all.

It's been, for the most part, either the Wildcats' Achilles heal or catapult to euphoria.

In three of the four second-round losses, Villanova was either a No. 1 or 2 seed, facing a No. 7 or 8-seed. In the two national championship wins, the first in 2016 and then in 2018, the Wildcats were a No. 2 and No. 1 seed, respectively.

And when Villanova takes the floor at PPG Paints Arena on Sunday against No. 7 seed Ohio State, it will once again be a No. 2 seed.

Judging by the seeings, Villanova should be the favorite, should be the ones in the Sweet 16. But Wright's been in this position before, seen a couple NCAA Tournaments in his time — including this year’s, which has already seen multiple top-two seeds knocked out in the early rounds. 

He knows seeding doesn't tell the whole story.

"The tournament is so much about match-ups. It really is," Wright said. "We look at it more like we've just run into really good teams in the second round [in the past], and I think it's happened again.

"When you're in the NCAA Tournament, if you get to the second round, it doesn't matter what your seed is. You get to the second round, you're playing a great team."

In the past, Villanova has faced teams in the second round that probably should have been seeded a bit higher. In 2014, the Wildcats lost to No. 7 seed UConn, the eventual national champions, and a year later fell to No. 8 seed NC State that had picked up wins over two top-10 teams, but a cold stretch later in the year dropped their seed.

They followed up those losses with a national championship — then another second-round loss, this time to No. 8 seed Wisconsin — and another national title.

This year, Villanova again faces a team currently better than its seeding would indicate. 

Ohio State spent all of the season inside the AP top-25, reaching as high as 13, until the final two weeks, where it fell out of the rankings completely. The Buckeyes entered the tournament losers of four of their last five but found their footing in the first round as they put together an impressive 54-41 victory over Loyola-Chicago.

Ohio State welcomed back two key contributors to the floor for the Loyola game, in Kyle Young and Zed Key. Young, the Buckeye's third leading scorer, had missed the last three games, and Key was out for three of Ohio State's last four games including its lone Big Ten Tournament contest.

"If they would have had their guys together, this would have been a [No.] 2 or 3 seed, I think," Wright said. "We just happened to run into a really good team again."

The Wildcats are back in a familiar spot. They're one of the top teams in the nation with, the high seed to prove it. But on Sunday, when they face a team they're expected to beat, the result will likely answer an ever so important question; will this be Villanova's Achillies heel, or launch them on another deep March run?

Scouting Ohio State
Ohio State is led by third-team AP All-American EJ Liddell, who is in his third season at Ohio State. The 6-foot-7 forward leads the team in scoring (19.5 average), rebounding (8.0), and blocks (2.6).

In addition to being a dominant player inside, Liddell can score at all three levels, shooting 37% from three on 3.8 attempts per game. Given his size and solid frame — he weighs 240 pounds — Wright will likely task Jermaine Samuels and Eric Dixon with the challenge of guarding him.

"He's as good as anybody in the low post, not just scoring but passing out of there," Wright said. "[...] Then he can face up on the perimeter and just iso you, hit step-back threes. That's a pro. [...] He's just a basketball player. He's going to be a handful."

The second option for the Buckeyes on the offensive end is talented freshman Malaki Branham. Branham can score from anywhere on the floor, posting 49.7/42.0/83.3 shooting splits, but has more of a slight build standing 6-5 but weighing just 180 pounds. Joining Branham in the starting backcourt is Jamari Wheeler, a graduate guard that's 6-1 and 170 pounds.

Guard size will definitely be an area of strength for Villanova as Collin Gillespie is 6-3, 195 pounds, and Justin Moore is 6-4, 210. 

"We're small, and we're also slight at some of those [guard] spots," Ohio State head coach Chris Holtmann said. "Malaki is not short but he's slight. He's 18 years old. So it's very much a concern. It just really is, because they post their guards."

Overall, Ohio State is one of the best teams in the nation of the offensive end, ranking 12th in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com. On the defensive side, the Buckeyes rank outside of the top 100 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom but are coming off a stellar performance, holding Loyola-Chicago to only 41 points on just 7-for-28 (26.8%) shooting from two-point range.

Holtmann, the former head coach at Butler from 2014-17, is rather familiar with the Wildcats and certainly knows a thing or two about upsetting them.

In 2017, Holtmann's Bulldogs knocked off No. 1 ranked Villanova at Hinkle Fieldhouse in January and then turned around to beat the No. 2 ranked Wildcats on the road in late February. In the head-to-head between Wright and Holtmann, Wright has a slight 4-3 advantage.

Villanova and Ohio State last met in 2019 in the regular season, where the Buckeyes handily won, 76-51. Moore, Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels all got the start in that game, while Kyle Young is the only starter from the Ohio State side still with the team.